Overshoot is not surrender: PICAN says every fraction of a degree is now a fight for survival

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

[KOROR, 2 September 2026] - The Pacific Islands Climate Action Network (PICAN) has warned that the projected overshoot of the 1.5°C global warming threshold must not become an excuse for weaker climate ambition.

A major new UNEP report released today finds that global warming is now set to cross 1.5°C within the next few years. Even under an optimistic scenario, peak warming reaches around 1.8°C, while current policies point to significantly higher temperatures. UNEP warns there are no safe outcomes above 1.5°C, with Small Island Developing States facing escalating risks from sea-level rise, ecosystem loss, extreme weather and possible partial or complete submersion.

The report lands as Pacific leaders meet in Palau for the 55th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting, where climate resilience, regional security and development are central to discussions.

Dr Rufino Varea, Director of the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network said:

“For the Pacific, overshoot is not a line on a graph. Every fraction of a degree carries consequences for our reefs, our food and water, our economies, our homes and ultimately our ability to remain on our islands. We have fought for 1.5°C because the science has always told us what lies beyond it, and this report makes those consequences even clearer.”

“We cannot allow the inevitability of crossing 1.5°C to become an excuse for accepting a  hotter world. Overshoot may now be unavoidable, but how high temperatures rise and how long they remain there are still determined by the choices governments make today. Every fraction of a degree we prevent matters. Every year we shorten overshoot matters. For Pacific peoples, those choices will be measured in what we are still able to save.”

UNEP identifies an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway as the best remaining option to limit how high temperatures rise and how long they remain above 1.5°C. The report makes clear that the most effective action available now is rapid and sustained emissions reductions, alongside stronger adaptation and resilience. While technologies may form part of future responses, they cannot substitute for cutting emissions at source today.

The report also places equity and justice at the centre of the response, saying countries with greater historical responsibility and capability must act the hardest and fastest.

Dr Sindra Sharma, International Policy Lead at the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network said:

“Crossing 1.5°C does not make 1.5°C irrelevant. It makes the responsibility to act even greater. The International Court of Justice has affirmed 1.5°C as the agreed primary temperature goal under the Paris Agreement, and UNEP is clear that this benchmark continues to guide states’ obligations even in an overshoot world.”

“The science of overshoot cannot become political cover for continued fossil fuel expansion or weaker climate targets. Nor can governments gamble our future on technologies that may or may not deliver at the scale required to bring temperatures back down. States must act to limit any exceedance of 1.5C. That means deep and sustained emissions reductions now, stronger NDCs, an accelerated transition away from fossil fuels, and climate finance at a scale that enables vulnerable countries to adapt while protecting development gains.”

“And we have to ask the justice question at the heart of this report - who is being asked to carry the cost of overshoot? Pacific countries did not create this crisis, yet our options are closing around us, climate finance is not reaching communities to flexibly adapt to and respond to the harms of a warming world. We are being asked to contemplate consequences that reach all the way to habitability. Overshoot has a message, to those delaying action — it is telling us we are disposable.”

UNEP’s legal analysis also reinforces that overshoot does not erase existing obligations. The report says the 1.5°C benchmark continues to guide states even if warming exceeds it, and that growing climate risks increase the level of action expected from governments.

PICAN said the report should sharpen, not weaken, Pacific demands for deep emissions cuts, a transition away from fossil fuels, adequate climate finance and stronger support for adaptation and loss and damage.

ENDS

Note to Editors

The UNEP Limiting Overshoot report finds that global action has not been fast enough to prevent warming from crossing 1.5°C in the next few years. It identifies an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway as the best remaining option for limiting peak warming and eventually returning temperatures towards 1.5°C, while stressing that such a return is uncertain and cannot undo all losses incurred during overshoot. 

The report also reinforces that mitigation and adaptation must advance simultaneously, and that the choices made today determine both the magnitude and duration of overshoot.

About PICAN

PICAN is a regional alliance of 290+ non-government organisations, civil society organisations, social movements and not-for-profit organisations from the Pacific Islands region working on various aspects of climate change, disaster risk and response, and sustainable development.

Media Contact:

Dylan Kava, Strategic Communications Lead, PICAN

dylan.kava@pican.org | +679 9061989 (Palau / GMT+9)