An Independent Scientific Assessment of the Global Plastics Treaty Negotiations

Deconstructing the Chair's Text and Mapping the Path to INC 5.2

On 2 August 2025, As the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-5) concluded in Busan and now reconvenes in Geneva, this report offers a clear-eyed, science-grounded analysis of the roadblocks, coalitions, and procedural battles that will determine whether the world secures a truly transformative treaty on plastic pollution. Drawing on insider knowledge of the negotiations and deep expertise in Pacific frontline realities, this assessment maps the landscape from Busan to Geneva and highlights the strategic choices before negotiators.

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Key Lessons:

• Scope Is Everything - a meaningful treaty must cover the full plastics lifecycle - from feedstock extraction and polymer production through product design to waste management and legacy pollution. Narrowing scope to post-consumer waste will leave the crisis unaddressed at its root.
  

• Upstream Controls Are Non-Negotiable -binding, time-bound targets to reduce primary plastic polymer production are essential. Downstream fixes like recycling alone cannot manage runaway production or curb associated greenhouse-gas emissions.
  

• Finance Must Reflect ‘Polluter Pays’ - developing countries demand a new, dedicated multilateral fund with assessed contributions and innovative fee mechanisms on virgin plastics. Reliance on voluntary donations or existing institutions will perpetuate inequity and delay action.

  
  

• Governance and Voting Rules Make or Break Ambition - consensus-only decision making empowers obstruction by a small minority. A qualified-majority safeguard is critical to prevent veto power from undermining strong global rules.
  

• Science-Policy Partnerships Amplify Impact - independent bodies like the Scientists’ Coalition and civil-society networks have proven indispensable in translating evidence into negotiation-ready policy. Their ongoing engagement must be institutionalized within the treaty framework.

The choice before INC-5.2 is stark - a lowest-common-denominator pact that placates entrenched interests, or an ambition-driven treaty that aligns with scientific reality and frontline justice demands.

Pacific SIDS and the broader Global South have already demonstrated their power to unite behind high-ambition solutions. Now negotiators must harness that same solidarity to finalize a plastics treaty with the teeth needed to end plastic pollution and protect people and planet for generations to come.

PICAN will continue to stand with our partners, allies, and communities to ensure that science, equity, and justice guide every decision at the plastic treaty negotiations and beyond.

About PICAN

PICAN is a regional alliance of 190+ non-governmental organisations, civil society organisations, social movements and not-for-profit organisations from the Pacific Islands region working on various aspects of climate change, disaster risk and response and sustainable development.

For enquiries, email scretariat@pican.org